Bitcoin has kicked off the fourth quarter of 2025 with a robust rally, surging greater than 10% over the previous week — from round $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 right this moment.
However Bitcoin might surge to contemporary all-time highs if the U.S. government shutdown continues, based on Geoff Kendrick, head of digital property at Customary Chartered.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin’s traditionally constructive correlation with U.S. Treasury time period premiums, suggesting the cryptocurrency might profit from extended fiscal uncertainty.
Kendrick famous that in extended market stress — situations that usually favor digitally scarce property — Bitcoin has traditionally proven outstanding resilience. On this case, the extended stress comes from the U.S. authorities’s prolonged shutdown.
Customary Chartered’s forecast now targets Bitcoin at $135,000 within the close to time period, with a year-end projection of $200,000, signaling sturdy confidence within the token’s upside potential.
At the moment, bitcoin trades round $122,200, simply shy of its August all-time excessive of $124,480.
Bitcoin poised for a rally
The potential for an prolonged U.S. authorities shutdown provides one other layer of market uncertainty, typically influencing each equities and fixed-income devices.
For bitcoin, these situations may serve as a catalyst, reinforcing its position as a hedge towards conventional market volatility.
Bitcoin has traded sideways in latest months, however key liquidity indicators suggest a breakout may be near. International M2 development, stablecoin provide developments, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin has carefully tracked with a 40-day lag — all level upward.
JPMorgan analysts also see Bitcoin as undervalued relative to gold, estimating a theoretical upside to $165,000 if the “debasement commerce” — investing in property that hedge fiat foreign money danger — continues.
With September closing roughly 5% larger at $114,000, historic patterns counsel a robust potential for outsized positive aspects in This autumn, supported by rising retail and institutional curiosity in Bitcoin ETFs and custody options.
Information shows that in years reminiscent of 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, constructive September closes had been adopted by fourth-quarter rallies averaging greater than 50%.
