Tech shares will underperform the TSX Composite
In comparable trend to our Canada versus U.S.A. wager defined above, the TSX Composite didn’t beat tech shares, if we outline tech shares because the Nasdaq 100 (the 100 largest shares on the Nasdaq inventory alternate). That mentioned, since early July, the Nasdaq is up about 6.5%, whereas the TSX Composite is up 15% over the identical interval.
Canadian GDP per capita would proceed to fall
Sadly, we hit this one on the pinnacle. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita fell all through 2024. We’ve now suffered six consecutive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Since 2014, Canada maintain twenty seventh out of 30 superior economies in relation to GDP per capita development.
As soon as adjusting for immigration, the Canadian economic system has primarily been caught in impartial for 10 years now. Right here’s a take a look at the divergence of our economic system versus that of our largest buying and selling accomplice.
That is what the long run will seem like if present productiveness traits persist:
Flatlining GDP numbers continued to generate extra discuss of “Is it a recession or not?”
Yup, we’re nonetheless speaking a few recession. Simply a few weeks in the past, former Financial institution of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said, “I might say we’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even name it a technical one. A technical one is a superficial definition that you’ve got two quarters of detrimental development in a row, and we haven’t had that, however the reason being as a result of we’ve been swamped with new immigrants who purchase the fundamentals in life, and that enhances our consumption sufficient.”
Canada’s greatest dividend shares
Oil costs stayed beneath USD$85 per barrel
Whereas we have been proper on this one, it’d seem like apparent in hindsight. It may be simple to neglect simply how bullish some buyers have been about oil 12 months in the past. In late December 2023, Barclays predicted the WTI worth would common USD$93, and Financial institution of America predicted USD$90. We’re accessible if both of these two establishments wish to us lead their fossil fuels analyst groups.
One of the best on-line brokers, ranked and in contrast
Crypto could be unstable, however completed 2024 up 50% (plus)
Bullseye! As you’re going to study as you proceed to learn, we didn’t get every part proper this 12 months. We definitely couldn’t have forecasted a presidential candidate would buy a major stake in a cryptocurrency firm, then go from saying bitcoin was a “scam” to taking a few quarter-billion dollars from the crypto business and turning into its greatest promoter.
Bitcoin did fall greater than 25% from March to August in 2024, earlier than the present rally fuelled by president-elect Donald Trump. That occasion now has bitcoin up 125% year-to-date. Regardless of predicting the BTC rally, we stay simply as skeptical as we have been a 12 months in the past. To make it into my portfolio an funding will need to have income and/or money move, and BTC has neither.
